Cranage News

It can be said the way we navigate transitions, both in work and life, often shapes our growth and trajectory.  This has never been truer for CFG.  Our partnership with AZ NGA has undoubtably been a turning stone for our business, as has the ongoing exposure to a collective of high-quality firms and passionate business leaders. 

On the ground, November was yet another activity focused month, setting the stage for Summer and the festive season ahead!  Alongside focused growth for 2024-25, our client's vision remains our due north, with all changes (past, present and future) designed to enhance our service offering, client experience and boost productivity.

We remain curious and open to new technology, with Artificial Intelligence in Financial Advice becoming an increasingly interesting space to watch.  As it’s sophistication and accessibility grow, so too will its uses, with 2025 (and beyond) set be a very big year for AI in our industry. 

We also wanted to take a moment to acknowledge a recent milestone at Cranage, with 04.10.2024 marking 40 years since our father, Paul Cranage, started the business.  We raised a glass (or three) in celebration of the history and evolution of Cranage, and all that is to come. 

But at the end of the day (or year) it’s you, our client(s), that inspires the greatest change in our leaders, support team and business as a whole.  We thank you for your trust, partnership and motivation for change and growth throughout 2024.

From our family to yours, a very Merry Christmas. 

Regards,

Ben, Sam and Laura Cranage

Economic and Market Observations 

Monthly Market Update, November 2024

Key Themes:

• Equities rose: Both Australian and international equities rose in November. US equities grew on expectations for policies under a Trump presidency that will benefit US companies, mainly US banks and US energy stocks. In Australia, technology stocks grew as investors sought investment opportunities that would be less affected by global market challenge. 
• Bond prices rise: Australian and international bond prices rose as bond yields fell in expectation of continuing rate cuts in both Australia and the US. This was despite Trump’s planned policies that could have an inflationary effect on the US economy.
• Australian Dollar depreciated: The AUD depreciated against the USD as the USD strengthen after the result of the US election. The president-elect’s proposed policies such increased tariffs could increase inflation and slow interest rate cuts which would increase demand for the USD.
• Commodities rise: Oil fell in November due to global demand for oil stagnating and gold also fell as the strengthening USD lowers the need to use gold as a hedge against currency devaluation.

Click here to read the full report.

Quarter Update, September 2024
 

• Equity All-Time Highs: Despite volatility caused by a spike in US unemployment and an unexpected rate hike in Japan, global equities continued to rise in Q3 2024, with many major equity markets reaching all-time highs.  This increase occurred off the back of continued excitement around A.I. and NVIDIA as well as the global trend of falling interest rates, most notably in the U.S. which cut rates for the first time this cycle in September U.S. Rate Cut in September: The US Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time since they started hiking in 2022. A rate cut should mean that the economy is showing weakness, but the market did not react this way, instead equities rallied on the rate cut news. This has raised concerns that in a slowing rate environment equity may run out of steam.
• Bond Prices Rose Off Both Real and Expected Rate Cuts: Over the quarter both global and Australian bonds rose as central banks continued to cut rates globally and Australia comes closer to its first rate cut, which we expect to occur in 2025.  Global bond yields fell following the 50bp rate cut in the US which also provided a tailwind to fixed income markets.
• Australian Dollar appreciates: The AUD appreciated against the USD as the Federal Reserve cut rates while the RBA continues to wait for the Australian economy to slow further.  The USD depreciated against a number of major currencies as decreasing the central bank rate lowers the risk-free return that investors can receive from holding USD relative to other currencies.
• Cautious Q4 Outlook: We expect to see market volatility in the fourth quarter of 2024, especially following the U.S. election.  For portfolios we recommend using diversified equities across both regions and investments styles and for fixed income we recommend a medium duration approach to benefit from rate cuts while hedging against an unexpected resurgence in inflation.
• Sector Performance: Performance in the third quarter of 2024 was found across a broader range of sectors than previous quarters as we saw some rotation away from technology stocks and into more defensive sectors and small cap stocks that had been neglected earlier in the year.
   

Click here to read the full report.

Morningstar’s quarterly investment briefing summary video for Q3 is now available, covering;

• Diversification delivering. 
• Chinese equities coming back to life. 
• The bounce in bonds.

Please click here to watch.
 

Lending: Getting ahead of the game...

With another rate hold of 4.35%, Cranage lending enjoyed the buzz and a welcomed balance in supply and demand this Spring, alongside a renewal of the Melbourne property market.  It’s been easy to overlook the Melbourne market post covid, especially for investors, but with a forecast to become Australia’s biggest city by end of the decade, it’s nice to see the tables finally turning in our favour and a flurry of activity as we enter summer.

With plenty of pre-approvals in the system from last quarter, clients are seizing opportunities to buy now, ahead of anticipated rate reductions early in 2025.          

Senior Lending Consultant, Jerome Mendis, suggests ‘now is the perfect time to get ahead of the game, before the competition heats up in the New Year’.

In life, and lending, you need to be smart enough to look for and create your own opportunities.  Don’t wait for them to come to you.  Contact our expert lending team today;

t:  03 9097 6000
e:  jerome@cranagegroup.com.au

CFG will be closing doors for 2024 from 12pm on Friday the 20th of December and will reopen on Monday the 6th of January 2025.  Wishing you a wonderful festive season and a prosperous new year.